Today's start
Monday, September 7Luis Arraez
72.2%to get a hit · Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves · facing Grant Holmes · .311 AVG · his 3.62 ERA · bats 4th
Chance of a hit — the pick against the required bar and the field
This pick is scored only from what's posted — a stronger hitter could still appear. Check back closer to first pitch.
- Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers — both pending
- Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics — Toronto Blue Jays pending
Why
- Top pick: Luis Arraez at 72.2% calibrated confidence.
- Steady recent contact — a .295 expected average over his recent windows.
- The pitcher has been hittable — a .318 expected average allowed over the last month.
- Playing in a park that nudges hit rates up (park factor 107).
Risk check
Clean — no bullpen game, rain, fatigue, deep-lineup-slot, or inflated-BABIP flag on this pick.
Streak Saver
Streak Saver (games 10–15) isn't available yet at 0.
This recommendation is the model's calibrated output, not a suggestion to second-guess for a favorite player or to chase back a prior loss. Overriding it should be a deliberate, confirmed action.
Move the streak, watch the bar
A longer streak is worth protecting, so the confidence a pick must clear climbs from 65% once you pass 10, up to 80%.
This site shows the same recommendation for everyone — it isn't tracking a streak of yours. Drag the dial to see how the call would shift if you were carrying a longer one.
The board
The recommendation is the top of 159 confirmed starting hitters the model scored today. The rest are here to be checked, not shopped — one deliberate step away.