Today's start
Friday, September 4Jake McCarthy
74.0%to get a hit · Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · facing Andre Pallante · .296 AVG · his 3.57 ERA · bats 1st
Chance of a hit — the pick against the required bar and the field
This pick is scored only from what's posted — a stronger hitter could still appear. Check back closer to first pitch.
- Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians — both pending
- New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres — New York Yankees pending
- Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Washington Nationals pending
- Athletics @ Seattle Mariners — both pending
Why
- Top pick: Jake McCarthy at 74.0% calibrated confidence.
- Squaring the ball up lately — a .330 expected average across his recent windows.
- The pitcher has been hittable — a .375 expected average allowed over the last month.
- Bats 1st — near the top of the order, so more trips to the plate.
Risk check
Clean — no bullpen game, rain, fatigue, deep-lineup-slot, or inflated-BABIP flag on this pick.
Streak Saver
Streak Saver (games 10–15) isn't available yet at 0.
This recommendation is the model's calibrated output, not a suggestion to second-guess for a favorite player or to chase back a prior loss. Overriding it should be a deliberate, confirmed action.
Move the streak, watch the bar
A longer streak is worth protecting, so the confidence a pick must clear climbs from 65% once you pass 10, up to 80%.
This site shows the same recommendation for everyone — it isn't tracking a streak of yours. Drag the dial to see how the call would shift if you were carrying a longer one.
The board
The recommendation is the top of 205 confirmed starting hitters the model scored today. The rest are here to be checked, not shopped — one deliberate step away.