Gunnar Henderson
71.0% to get a hit · Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies · facing Tomoyuki Sugano · .221 AVG · his 5.23 ERA · bats 3rd
Chance of a hit — the required bar against the whole confirmed field
Move the streak, watch the bar
A longer streak is worth protecting, so the confidence a pick must clear climbs from 65% once you pass 10, up to 80%.
Why
- Top pick: Gunnar Henderson at 71.0% calibrated confidence.
- Steady recent contact — a .294 expected average over his recent windows.
- The pitcher has been hittable — a .366 expected average allowed over the last month.
- Playing in a park that nudges hit rates up (park factor 113).
What could go wrong
- Gunnar Henderson: day game after a night game — possible fatigue.
- Gunnar Henderson: getaway day — team travels after this game.
Streak Saver
Streak Saver (games 10–15) isn't available yet at 0.
This recommendation is the model's calibrated output, not a suggestion to second-guess for a favorite player or to chase back a prior loss. Overriding it should be a deliberate, confirmed action.
The field
The recommendation is the top of 87 confirmed starting hitters the model scored today. The rest are here to be checked, not shopped — one deliberate step away.
How the number is made
A three-model ensemble — logistic regression, gradient boosting, and a player-history model — scores every confirmed starting hitter's chance of a hit, then a calibration layer makes the percentage mean what it says. The decision policy optimizes for the longest unbroken streak, not for being right most often: that's why a skip is a real recommendation, and why the bar to pick rises as your streak grows.
See how the confidence has held upThis site shows one recommendation for everyone — it doesn't track your personal streak, which is the official contest's job. The dial is for exploring how the pick would change at a longer streak.
Slate status
6 of 15 games with both lineups confirmed
9 games still waiting on a lineup. This recommendation is scored only from what's posted — a stronger hitter could still appear. Check back closer to first pitch.
- San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates — both lineups pending
- New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays — both lineups pending
- Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians — both lineups pending
- Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins — both lineups pending
- Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals — both lineups pending
- Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs — both lineups pending
- Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros — both lineups pending
- New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels — both lineups pending
- St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — both lineups pending